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MATTHEW LIEDKE COLUMN: Who gets the Globe?

The 76th annual Golden Globe awards ceremony is tonight and will give some insight into what films have momentum in the Oscars race.

The Globes are voted on and given out by the Hollywood Foreign Press Association, a group of about 90 members. In most award seasons, the Globes are usually one of the more interesting ceremonies, mainly because the HFPA can make some surprising choices. There have been plenty of times where there picks have gone against the season's trends and therefore, they can be notoriously hard to predict sometimes.

I'm going to give it my best shot, though. So, here are my picks to take home those gold statues tonight.

Best Motion Picture — Drama

• "Black Panther."

• "BlackKklansman."

• "Bohemian Rhapsody."

• "If Beale Street Could Talk."

• "A Star is Born."

Talk about snubs. No "Hereditary," no "First Man" and no "First Reformed." Out of the nominees the HFPA did pick, I'm leaning toward "A Star is Born" winning this one. Even with all the buzz "Black Panther" is picking up, I don't see it winning, "Beale Street" doesn't seem to have enough momentum and I can't see "Rhapsody" taking the top honor of the night.

Best Motion Picture — Musical or Comedy

• "Crazy Rich Asians."

• "The Favourite."

• "Green Book."

• "Mary Poppins Returns."

• "Vice."

This is always a tough category to predict because its focused on two genres yet sometimes dramas are still nominated. This year I could see "Green Book," "Vice" and "The Favourite" having good chances. At the end of the day, though, my guess is "The Favourite." It's nominated in several other categories and seems to have been the most well received out of the group.

Best Actress, Drama

• Glenn Close in "The Wife."

• Stefani Joanne Angelina "Lady Gaga" Germanotta in "A Star is Born"

• Nicole Kidman for "Destroyer"

• Melissa McCarthy for "Can You Ever Forgive Me"

• Rosamund Pike for A Private War

I see Lady Gaga winning this one fairly easily. Among the nominations, her performance is the most well-known and received plenty of praise. If the HFPA wanted to throw a curveball, I could see McCarthy have a chance, but I'll stick with Lady Gaga.

Best Actor, Drama

• Bradley Cooper for "A Star is Born"

• Willem Dafoe for "At Eternity's Gate"

• Lucas Hedges for "Boy Erased"

• Rami Malek for "Bohemian Rhapsody"

• John David Washington for "BlackKklansman"

Again, snubs. No Ryan Gosling for "First Man" and no Ethan Hawke for "Ethan Hawke." Regardless, I'm seeing this one come down to Cooper and Malek. My guess is that "Star is Born" will have a very good night, though, and Cooper will pick up a Globe.

Best Actress, Musical or Comedy

• Emily Blunt for "Mary Poppins Returns"

• Olivia Colman for "The Favourite"

• Elsie Fisher for "Eighth Grade"

• Charlize Theron for "Tully"

• Constance Wu for "Crazy Rich Asians"

I see this as mainly a race between Blunt and Colman, although the HFPA could toss a curveball and give the award to Fisher. Considering just how great Colman's performance in "The Favourite" was, though, I give her the nod here.

Best Actor, Musical or Comedy

• Christian Bale for "Vice"

• Lin-Manuel Miranda for "Mary Poppins Returns"

• Viggo Mortensen for "Green Book"

• Robert Redford for "The Old Man and the Gun"

• John C. Reilly for "Stan & Ollie"

I think this one is going to Bale and it's not even close. Say what you will about "Vice," but the acting from its lead was incredible. Bale completely became the character he was playing and it will earn him the award.

Best Actress in a Supporting Role

• Amy Adams for "Vice"

• Claire Foy for "First Man"

• Emma Stone for "The Favourite"

• Rachel Weisz for "The Favourite"

• Regina King for "If Beale Street Could Talk"

To me this one is a three way race between Stone, King and Weisz. It's a tough choice, but I see King edging out the two from "The Favourite."

Best Actor in a Supporting Role

• Mahershala Ali for "Green Book"

• Timothee Chalamet for "Beautiful Boy"

• Adam Driver for "BlackKklansman"

• Richard E. Grant for "Can You Ever Forgive Me"

• Sam Rockwell for "Vice"

I could see Driver picking this one up, but I'm leaning heavily toward Grant. His performance has been listed as one of the best parts of "Can You Ever Forgive Me" by many people, myself included, and I wouldn't be surprised to see him get the honor.

Best Motion Picture — Animated

• "Incredibles 2"

• "Isle of Dogs"

• "Mirai"

• "Ralph Breaks the Internet"

• "Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse"

This is a really tough one to pick. I'm not 100 percent sure whether HFPA will go artsy and pick "Isle of Dogs," or if they'll back Disney with "Incredibles 2." They could also go with the animated "Spider-Man." While I think "Spider-Verse" is the better movie, though, the name recognition will probably help "Incredibles 2" win the Globe.

Best Motion Picture — Foreign Language

• "Capernaum"

• "Girl"

• "Never Look Away"

• "Roma"

• "Shoplifters"

While many of these movies has received praise, especially "Shoplifters," the film given the most acclaim has been "Roma" and it's my pick for foreign language.

Best Director

• Bradley Cooper for "A Star is Born"

• Alfonso Cuaron for "Roma"

• Pete Farrelly for "Green Book"

• Spike Lee for "BlackKklansman"

• Adam McKay for "Vice

Even those in the industry who didn't enjoy "Roma" narratively have praised Cuaron's direction. It's a true masterclass in filmmaking and I see him getting this win.

Best Screenplay

• Alfonso Cuaron for "Roma"

• Deborah Davis and Tony McNamara for "The Favourite"

• Barry Jenkins for "If Beale Street Could Talk"

• Adam McKay for "Vice"

• Peter Farrelly, Nick Vallelonga and Brian Currie for "Green Book"

The HFPA really seemed to like "Vice," giving it multiple nominations, so McKay has a chance. However, I'm leaning toward the writing duo for "The Favourite" to win the award.

Best Score

• Marco Beltrami for "A Quiet Place"

• Alexandre Desplat for "Isle of Dogs"

• Ludwig Goransson for "Black Panther"

• Justin Hurwitz for "First Man"

• Marc Shaiman for "Mary Poppins Returns"

"First Man" didn't get much love in the Globe nominations, but I think it will have success here.

Best Song

• "All the Stars" in "Black Panther"

• "Girl in the Movies" in "Dumplin"

• "Requiem for a Private War" in "A Private War"

• "Revelation" in "Boy Erased"

• "Shallow" in "A Star is Born"

"Shallow" from "A Star is Born" might be the biggest movie-related original song of the year and I'm guessing it will get the Globe.

The Golden Globes ceremony will air at 7 p.m. on NBC with Sandra Oh and Andy Samberg hosting.

Matthew Liedke

Matthew Liedke is the city, county and state government reporter for the Bemidji Pioneer. He also covers business, politics and financial news.

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